NEWS CENTER - There are signs showing that Turkey, which continues its attacks against Federated Kurdistan, is preparing for a new operation against Northern and Eastern Syria. The purpose of the operation is to separate the parts of Federated Kurdistan and the Autonomous Administration.

 

The operation launched by Turkey on April 23 against the Metîna, Avaşîn and Zap regions in order to avenge the operation carried out by Turkey on Garê in the Federated Kurdistan Region on February 10, which resulted in the death of 16 soldiers, 13 of whom were captured, is now in its 6th month. Despite the warplanes, drones, Armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (SİHA) and heavy weapons used in the operation, which included special forces affiliated with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Turkey could not make any progress, and there were some reports that Turkey resorted to chemical weapons and poisonous gases. 

 

THINGS DID NOT GO AS PLANNED

 

With the operation launched, it was planned that the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) would quickly advance towards Qandil by gaining dominance in Avaşîn, Metîna and Zap regions within 2-3 months. Within the scope of this Ankara-based plan, the people of the Maxmur Refugee Camp would be suppressed by air strikes, the autonomy of Shengal would be destroyed, the Autonomous Administration would collapse. In line with the progress to be made within this plan, early elections would be decided by the AKP and MHP alliance, and it was planned to emerge victorious from the ballot box with the nationalist atmosphere created. However, things did not go as planned and the desired progress could not be achieved in Metîna, Avaşîn and Zap.

 

PLAN B 

 

The fact that the desired result was not achieved in the operation pushed Turkey to make a plan B. According to the Plan B, Turkey asked the participants of the "Neighboring and Regional Countries Cooperation and Solidarity Summit" held in Baghdad on July 28 under the leadership of France to support all operations against the Kurds or to maintain their silence. However, according to the information obtained, this demand of Turkey was not met.

 

CONTACTS MIT UNDERSECRETARY MADE

 

Unable to find what it expected both militarily and politically, Turkey began to pursue these pursuits through National Intelligence Organization (MIT) Undersecretary Hakan Fidan. Fidan met with his Syrian counterpart, Ali Mamluk, in Baghdad on the "border security" of Turkey-Syria and Iraq-Syria. During this meeting, Fidan requested support from the Damascus regime for a planned comprehensive operation against Northern and Eastern Syria. There is some information that this diplomatic traffic, which was started to support the operation, is still continuing with the visits to Hewlêr and Baghdad.

 

Looking for the way to maintain its power in the comprehensive operation against Northern and Eastern Syria, Turkey has been trying to unite the paramilitary forces under one roof at the meetings held in Antep and Jarablus in recent months for this purpose. It is claimed that Russia and America also approved this plan of Turkey, which provokes Arab peoples against the Autonomous Administration. So much so that the meetings of the two global powers with the representatives of the Autonomous Administration in recent days are interpreted as an effort to hide the approval given to Turkey behind the scenes.

 

TİL TEMİR DRY RUN

 

The aim of Turkey with the planned operation is to completely cut off the connection between Northern and Eastern Syria and the Federated Kurdistan Region. Turkey, which wants to turn the US's withdrawal from Afghanistan into an opportunity, has increased its attacks on Northern and Eastern Syria with both armed drones and artillery since August. Especially the attacks against Til Temir are almost the preliminary stage of a large-scale attack. Turkey is being invited to the bargaining table with the attacks that Russia and the USA have paved the way by using their airspace. In this respect, attacks on Til Temir are considered as a dry run on the one hand and testing the waters on the other.

 

THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE OPERATION

 

Turkey intensified its build-up on the border line of Dirbesiyê and Amude. It is also among the information received that many armored vehicles, especially tanks, are positioned at these points, and that the villages in the region where the military units are dispatched have been evacuated. It is stated that Turkey has made a commitment to the villagers here that their losses will be compensated because they cannot do agriculture. The fact that drones, which have both reconnaissance-surveillance and strike capabilities, are kept in the air almost non-stop along the border line is also seen as an important clue.

 

THE AIM IS TO SEPERATE THE TWO PARTS

 

While it would be too optimistic to treat Turkey's military preparations as a mere 'threat maneuver', it could still be a tactical fallacy. Because a possible attack on Rojava is more likely to start in the Derik region. It is among the information that this operation, which aims to separate the parts of Federated Kurdistan and the Autonomous Administration, is called "Cutting the Veins" and its preparations are carried out at full speed.

 

It should not be overlooked that the siege developed by the KDP against the guerrilla in the Medya Defense Zones had the same aim. First of all, this siege aims to prevent HPG from helping the Rojava Revolution in case of a possible attack. At the same time, it is known that the Turks wanted to infiltrate Mosul and Kirkuk with the operation to be carried out in Federated Kurdistan and aimed to open an alternative door to Habur with the Iraqi administration. It is reflected in the latest statements that at least one is aware of this plan, whose location in the Iraqi state is not yet known exactly. Recently, striking news on this subject were reflected in the press.

 

WHY WAS THE SYRIAN LIBERATION FRONT FOUNDED?

 

Five of the military formations within the Syrian National Army (SMO) united under the name "Syrian Liberation Front". It has been stated for a long time that MIT is trying to unite these structures. Remembering when these structures were named the SMO, offers us serious clues in this regard. Just before targeting Serêkaniyê and Girêspi, Turkey announced in mid-2019 that it was uniting these structures, they were to be used in its attacks against Northern and Eastern Syria.

 

In an article in Şarkul Avsat, which published the unification and military training of these organizations and interprets this as a preparation for a large-scale military operation, the following words of Mutasim Abbas, who is the spokesperson of the Syrian Liberation Front, were quoted: "Ofcourse the SMO is waiting for the right time to start the operations against the PKK and the groups affiliated with the PKK. This alliance aims to clear the PKK and its affiliates from the regions in Syria. While the fighters continue to be trained to engage in combat as a preliminary stage of possible military operations against the PKK inside Syrian territory, the SMO, together with its various components, is currently conducting military preparations... This united group will be leading the struggle against these terrorist organizations once the military operations starts."

 

Another preparation made within this framework is to provoke and arm the tribes living in Northern and Eastern Syria against the Autonomous Administration. There is also information that a meeting was held in Antep on August 19 for this purpose. It is claimed that a tribe based in Jarablus, which is in cooperation with Turkey, will start a new military operation and when this movement begins, it is claimed that the tribes are given perspective to start attacking the Autonomous Administration from Manbij to Raqqa with assassination and sabotage attacks. This information from the region indicates a very serious preparation.      

 

PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATION

 

With Rojava on the agenda of the pro-government media for the last month, the psychological infrastructure of the planned operation is being built. In TV programs, so-called experts discuss how great a threat Rojava is for Turkey's survival and try to create a perception that Rojava threatens Turkey.

 

Another striking point in these efforts was that after the death of two Turkish soldiers in Idlib as a result of the attack of the Salafi organizations, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, who went to inspect the troops on the border line, openly threatened the Rojava forces, although it had nothing to do with the incident.

 

DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS

 

It is not possible for Turkey to carry out such an attack on Northern and Eastern Syria without the approval of the USA and Russia. It is obvious that Turkey, which carried out operations in the region in return for some concessions in the past, is trying to persuade both Russia and the USA today.

 

Turkey is seeking maximum support from the United States regarding its occupation policies. So much so that Hulusi Akar gave a direct message to the USA from the Rojava border. While the sub-text of the statement showed that it was ready to play a role on behalf of the USA in the Middle East, on the other hand, threats were made to the USA in an implicit way, claiming that it would constantly regress and be defeated in the Middle East without Turkey. Akar also offered a bribe, in a way, by declaring that they were ready to buy the Patriot system, no matter how expensive, regarding the S-400 defense system purchased from Russia, which is one of the main points of conflict between the USA and Turkey.

 

When these messages are read on the basis of timing, place and context, it is possible to conclude that Turkey aims to persuade the United States to attack Rojava.

 

THE MEETINGS HELD IN MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON

 

Thinking that these attempts were completely unsuccessful with reference to the changing US administration may lead to wrong conclusions. The fact that a large-scale delegation from the Syrian Democratic Council (MSD) was invited to Moscow and Washington for political talks, and that high-level US officials visited Rojava and praised Rojava's defense forces, it would be wrong to conclude that USA is not interested in the occupation attempts of Turkey. Although it is not remembered much today, in the summer of 2019, the International Coalition and the Autonomous Administration made a valid compromise along the border to refute Turkey's claims. However, the interest-oriented approach of the United States caused it to take sides with the attacks in October. For this reason, it should not be forgotten that the US rhetoric of a military alliance against ISIS does not make any sense in the face of Turkish aggression. However, a political assurance regarding the Autonomous Administration can mean that the USA is moving away from Turkey on regarding Rojava. It is clear that other gestures and compliments are meaningless. As a matter of fact, Turkey's actual attacks have never stopped and the United States has not taken any steps to prevent them.

 

RUSSIA'S PLANS

 

On the other hand, the position of Russia is neither close nor distant from the Autonomous Administration than the USA. It is known that Russia, which approaches Rojava in line with similar interests, has deep-rooted disagreements and contradictions with Turkey, both historically and currently, in many areas from the Caucasus to the Crimea. That doesn't mean it doesn't offer opportunities in return. From this perspective, the most important place to look in order to predict Russia's attitude is Idlib.

 

The interests of Russia and Turkey in Idlib are too different to overlap in any way. Despite this, the AKP-MHP government may make concessions in Idlib in order to find support for its hostility towards Kurds and its attacks on Rojava. It is clear that Turkey will not easily give up on its ambitions in this region until Rojava is reased from the maps. In this context, it is difficult to expect radical changes when looking at Idlib. It should not be forgotten that Turkey is in constant contact with Russia on this issue. In addition, Russia is using Turkey as a threat to force the Autonomous Administration to compromise to surrender to the BAAS regime. While this is one reason why Turkey allows partial attacks, another reason is the desire to pull the Autonomous Administration away from the United States to its side.

 

The most important current sign of Russia's approach to a possible operation is the intensification of talks between Damascus and Ankara in the context of intelligence. It is clear that these talks, strongly rejected by Damascus, are aimed at Rojava, and it is not possible to deal with the BAAS regime independently from Russia today. This harsh denial of the BAAS can be read as opening room for maneuver, although it is not meaningless. For all these reasons, it is possible that Russia may remain silent about a new attack by Turkey.

 

 

MA / Erdoğan Altan